ESTD PERPUSTAKAAN UNTAD
ESTD PERPUSTAKAAN UNTAD
| JudulPeramalan Tingkat Inflasi Di Kota Palu Dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis |
| Nama: CICI SAFITRI N. DUMO |
| Tahun: 2022 |
| Abstrak Inflation is very influential on society and the economy of a country. Various problems arise when the inflation rate is not controlled, such as an unstable economy, slow economic growth, a decline in currency values which indirectly affect global trade activities. Palu city is one of the provincial capitals with an inflation rate that fluctuates from year to year. So that research is needed that is able to predict the value of inflation in the future as input to the government in formulating macroeconomic policies and programs. This study discusses forecasting the inflation rate in Palu city using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. SSA is a forecasting method with a non-parametric approach. In determining the best model, the parameters of window length (L) and grouping (r) were determined based on the subjectivity of the researcher. The results of forecasting the inflation rate in Palu city have the best SSA model with parameter L=30 which has the smallest MAPE value of 17.19% and r=5. Based on this model, the forecast for the inflation rate in Palu city in 2022 is 1.25% in February, 1.28% in March, and 1.19% in April with a MAPE value of 14.01%. |